American grocery technology specialist, Instacart, is working with an investment bank to evaluate its options in relation to a potential sale, according to media reports.

A typical takeover premium of 30% to 40% would put its valuation at roughly $16 billion to $17 billion. Discussions are said to be preliminary and may not lead to a deal.

There has been much talk about who would snap up Instacart. But the question we should be asking is why would anyone buy it, according to Brittain Ladd, a supply chain consultant and former Amazon executive. The market is growing. Instacart isn't keeping up, he argues.

He notes that online grocery hit a record 20.9% of US grocery spending in Q3 2026, according to Brick Meets Click. Online sales grew 21%, the eighth straight quarter above 20%. In-store sales declined. In Q2, Instacart's orders grew 9%.

In a LinkedIn post, Ladd said: "The fastest growing channel in grocery is growing more than twice as fast as Instacart. Instacart is losing share in the market it helped create. Manual in-store picking doesn't work at 20% online share. I believe online grocery will reach 25% to 30% of sales by 2030. No grocer can run that volume through shoppers walking store aisles, filling carts one order at a time. The labour, the congestion and the out-of-stocks don't work at that scale."

He added: "Instacart's model is built on manual in-store picking. So is DoorDash's grocery business. Buying Instacart doesn't solve DoorDash's problem. It doubles down on it. The advertising business won't save the deal. Instacart's advertising revenue grew 16% in Q2, to $297 million."

That's about 28% of revenue and the most profitable part of the business. It's what a buyer would really be paying for, Ladd believes. But ads follow traffic. Instacart's ad revenue is growing faster than its orders because it's putting more ads on each order, not because it's winning more customers. 

Meanwhile, grocers have built their own retail media networks. Kroger's retail media profit grew 24% last quarter, its best growth since 2021. Albertsons' ad business passed $1.5 billion in annual revenue in early 2025. Any mid-size grocer can now license the same technology from Criteo, Epsilon, Topsort, Koddi, Kevel and others, and partner directly with Google, TikTok or Pinterest.

Ladd said: "Should DoorDash acquire Instacart? Not a chance. DoorDash is growing faster on its own. Its Q2 orders rose 27%, and grocery is its fastest-growing category. Acquiring Instacart would mean paying a premium for a company growing at a third of DoorDash's rate, a fulfilment model the market is moving away from, and an advertising business that depends on traffic Instacart is losing."

He concluded: "There's no buyer for whom Instacart solves a problem worth $16 billion to $17 billion. The brutal truth is that it has no legitimate long-term strategic value to any company I can name."

2026 RTIH Innovation Awards

Grocery technology will be a key focus area at the 2026 RTIH Innovation Awards.

The awards, which celebrate global retail technology innovation in a fast moving omnichannel world, have now closed for entries. Our winners will be revealed at the 2026 RTIH Innovation Awards Ceremony, taking place at The HAC in Central London on Wednesday, 4th November.

Check out our 2026 shortlists and finalists here.

We received a record number of entries this year and many fantastic examples of technology excellence driving transformative change across the global retail sector.

Congratulations to all those who made it through the initial submission process! It’s now over to our star studded judging panel who will decide the winners to be announced at the 2026 RTIH Innovation Awards Ceremony, taking place at The HAC in Central London. 

The event will be held on Wednesday, 4th November and consist of a drinks reception, three course meal, awards ceremony presided over by award winning stand-up comedian, presenter, actor and broadcaster, Aurie Styla, and after party until 1am.

Click here to book your place at the 2026 RTIH Innovation Awards Ceremony on Wednesday, 4th November.