British consumers will splash out a record £28.52 billion online between 1st November and 31st December 2026, according to research released by Adobe.

Spending this year is anticipated to increase by 6.2% year-on-year (YoY) as total Q4 (October–December) e-commerce spend is projected to reach £40 billion (+6.4% YoY). Powered by Adobe Analytics, the research analyses direct consumer transactions across hundreds of billions of visits to UK retailer websites, tracking 100 million SKUs across 18 product categories.

The findings reveal a consumer base that is spending with greater intent, leveraging deep online price advantages, relying on social and influencer discovery, and increasingly turning to generative AI assistants to uncover the best value.

The four-day Cyber Weekend (27th November – 30th November) is expected to be the most lucrative shopping period of the year, generating £4.05 billion in online spend and averaging more than £1 billion in online sales per day (+6.6% YoY).

Black Friday (27th November) remains the single biggest online spending day of the year at £1.24 billion, growing 7.1% YoY. Cyber Monday (30th November) will experience the fastest growth rate of the weekend at 7.6% YoY, surpassing £1 billion in daily online spend for the first time.

Discounts are projected to climb steadily throughout November - from 12% in early November to 18% just before Black Friday - before peaking at 25% off from the start of Cyber Weekend.

Consumers are leveraging the peak discount window to purchase higher-value items that were previously outside of their budgets with online prices expected to be down by an average of 2.5% YoY. Overall, the number of units sold from the most expensive quartile of products is expected to rise by more than 13%, particularly in the personal care (+38%), sporting goods (+34%), and electronics (+30%) categories.

Simultaneously, consumers are actively using seasonal promotions to stock up on everyday household essentials. During Cyber Week, online orders for everyday items are projected to surge compared to pre-season baselines, led by clothing basics (+215%), personal care and beauty (+148%), baby products (+84%), and household cleaning (+47%).

Vivek Pandya, Director of Adobe Digital Insights, comments: "UK shoppers are set to spend a record £28.52 billion online this holiday season, taking advantage of lower online prices and peak discounting moments to buy both higher-priced items and household essentials ahead of the festive period."

"This year also sees a shift in how consumers are discovering, evaluating and purchasing products, as they increasingly turn to generative AI, social media and influencers to guide their buying decisions and direct them to retail sites.”

British shoppers are increasingly bypassing traditional search engines, turning instead to generative AI tools, social media platforms, and creator content as trusted advisors for gift discovery and purchasing journeys. Notably, retail traffic driven by generative AI platforms is projected to surge by 214% YoY in November and December, accelerating rapidly from a 111% YoY increase in September. Equally, revenue share from social networks (+24% YoY) and influencer partnerships (+7% YoY) are forecast to lead marketing channel growth. 

Rather than subsiding after Christmas, AI usage is expected to sustain momentum well into post-holiday sales. Categories experiencing the strongest AI referral boosts include video games, toys, electronics, appliances, jewellery, and personal care.

"For retailers, winning this festive season requires more than just slashing prices. Brands must ensure that value is transparent, and that product data, educational buying guides, and customer support are clear and easily surfaced across the AI and social ecosystems guiding consumer decisions," Pandya concludes.