Here's why Ocado is the most valuable technology play in grocery, retail and logistics right now

Ocado Group’s recent pivot to store-based automation (SBA), compact micro-fulfillment solutions attachable to stores, installable inside, or standalone, will see its valuation triple or quadruple in 2026-2027 from its current $2.2 billion price tag. That’s according to Brittain Ladd, a supply chain consultant and former Amazon executive.

In a LinkedIn post, Ladd said: “Ocado has no peer in end-to-end technology and software for online grocery fulfillment. SBA positions them perfectly for growth in immediacy, pick-up, and fast delivery addressing gaps in their massive CFC model.”

“Kroger needs a legitimate automated MFC solution. AutoStore is a potential solution. However, according to sources, Kroger will pilot SBA. If the pilot goes well, Kroger will likely become a major SBA customer of Ocado. I believe it can be argued that SBA will save the relationship with Ocado. AutoStore is the closest competitor, but it’s more of an industrial automation player with a 30 year-old cube-based design. Ocado is a true tech company. Big difference.”

For Ladd, a key (and often misunderstood) fact about MFCs and AutoStore is this: grocery retailers using AutoStore MFCs typically need to fulfill around 1,000,000 online orders annually per site to break even and deliver a positive ROI. Lower order volumes lead to underutilisation and poor returns.

If grocery retailers charged customers a delivery fee that covers most if not all of the actual cost for fulfilling and delivering groceries, achieving a positive ROI would be easier. This provides a strategic opportunity for Ocado.

Ladd added: “Ocado hasn’t specified exact SBA thresholds, but its capital light approach (with retailer paybacks as short as two years) suggests much lower hurdles than traditional MFCs to breaking even and generating a positive ROI. This makes SBA exceptionally valuable to retailers not just grocery retailers.”

“I’ve been a vocal critic of Ocado for lacking an MFC complement to their world class CFCs. CEO Tim Steiner’s decision to launch SBA is brilliant albeit long overdue. It sets up meaningful topline growth by opening a new market for Ocado.”

Ladd concluded: “Ocado is arguably the most valuable tech play in grocery, retail, and logistics right now. I’m confident Amazon, Kroger, Symbotic, Walmart, SoftBank Group Corp., and others are evaluating it for a possible acquisition. 2025 was tough. 2026 is when Ocado improves the relationship with its current customers, updates the software in its CFCs, and pilots SBA. 2027 is when Ocado accelerates its growth and positions itself to become a $20 billion+ company.”

2026 RTIH Innovation Awards

Automation will be a key focus area at the 2026 RTIH Innovation Awards.

The awards are now open for entries and celebrate global retail technology innovation in a fast moving omnichannel world.

Our winners will be revealed at the 2026 RTIH Innovation Awards Ceremony, taking place at The HAC in Central London on Wednesday, 4th November.

Check out our 2025 winners here.

Our 2025 hall of fame entrants were revealed during a sold out event which took place at The HAC on 16th October and consisted of a drinks reception, three course meal, and awards ceremony presided over by award winning comedian, actress and writer Tiff Stevenson.

In his welcome speech, Scott Thompson, Founder and Editor, RTIH, said: “This is the awards’ fifth year as a physical event. We started off with just 30 people at the South Place Hotel not far from here, then moved to London Bridge Hotel, then The Barbican, and last year RIBA’s HQ in the West End.”

“But I’m conscious of the fact that, to quote the legend that is Taylor Swift, You’re only as hot as your last hit, baby. So, this year we’ve moved to our biggest venue yet, and also pulled in our largest number of entries to date and broken attendance records.”

He added: “This year’s submissions have without doubt been our best yet. To quote one of the judges: The examples of innovative developments across both traditional and digital retail spaces were truly remarkable.”

Congratulations to our winners, and a big thank you to our sponsors, judging panel, the legend that is Tiff Stevenson, and all those who attended our 2025 gathering.