Global retail spend to plummet in 2020 as coronavirus bites

With almost three million cases of coronavirus worldwide and numerous countries enforcing lockdowns, global retail spend is set to fall 3% in 2020, equating to $549.7 billion, according to GlobalData.

That’s in comparison to an expected rise of 5% prior to Covid-19 (+$927.7 billion).

Sofie Willmott, Lead Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “North America and Europe are set to experience the steepest drops in retail spend forecast to decrease 4.8% and 4.4% respectively.”

“And while APAC is expected to only see a relatively minor decline of 1.3% which looks good relative to other regions, pre-Covid 19 we had forecast the region’s growth to be 7.2%.”

Returning to action

Various bricks and mortar retailers are now plotting the long way back to post-coronavirus normality. Greggs, for instance, is set to reopen 20 stores on 4th May.

A ‘controlled trial’ will take place over two weeks in the Newcastle area. Only takeaways and deliveries will be offered and there will be shorter trading hours and a limited product range.

McDonald's UK is also carrying out tests. Elsewhere, Homebase has fully reopened an additional 50 stores across the UK today, after trialling 20 at the weekend. The remaining UK locations will all return for customers to browse and shop from Saturday.

And John Lewis is drawing up a blueprint that it will be ready to activate within weeks. Andrew Murphy, John Lewis Partnership's Executive Director of Operations who has led the strategy, has stressed that the company would wait for a signal from the government and health chiefs before triggering the operation.

He revealed that John Lewis is “modelling for scenarios where different sizes of shops are able to open at different points in time… That seems to us to be reasonably likely. Even in a scenario where we are theoretically able to open all our shops on the first day, we wouldn't do that. We would open in a minimum of three tranches.”

Timpson is also returning to action. “Now we’re allowed to reopen our shops inside supermarkets we are coming out of hibernation in 40 shops next week as a trial,” Chief Executive James Timpson said on Twitter.

“We’ve been working hard to ensure shops are safe for our colleagues and customers, and social distancing works. Pods and High St to remain closed for now.”