Coronavirus to take a huge chunk out of UK retail spend

The impact of coronavirus will wipe £12.6 billion from retail sales this year, according to GlobalData.

Patrick O’Brien, UK Retail Research Director at GlobalData, comments: “While the food and grocery market will grow at 7.1% - the fastest rate for decades - this will not stop the overall market falling as non-food spend is forecast to drop by 8.9%.”

“The impact on non-food is far worse even than during the financial crisis of 2009, when sales fell 2.9%. Clothing and footwear sales are forecast to be hit hardest, with sales down over 20% on 2019.”

The forecasts are on the optimistic side; they’re predicated on the pandemic peaking in April with most stores either closed or severely affected until late May, with non-food spend starting to recover in June, but with more normal spending patterns not arriving until October.

The total retail market for 2020 is now estimated to reach £333.7 billion from the original forecast of £346.3 billion, which is 1.7% down on 2019 (GlobalData had originally forecast +2%).

The company is predicting a rebound in 2021 but only back to 2019 levels. When the health crisis recedes, there will be a recession to deal with, and consumer confidence will take a long time to recover, it concludes.