Last mile delivery space set for explosive growth

Global last mile delivery market revenues are set to hit $117.9 billion by 2030, demonstrating a CAGR of 20.3% from 2020 to 2030, according to P&S Intelligence.

This will be powered by a growing demand for omnichannel retail, increasing internet penetration in emerging economies, including Thailand, Indonesia, and India, and soaring e-commerce sales in developing countries.

Use of real-time tracking technology will also be key here.

Ones to watch

Supply chain consultant and former Amazon executive, Brittain Ladd, lists the five rapid grocery delivery ventures that are most likely to succeed, including Buyk, Getir and Instacart.

First, let me clarify a few things. The investment activity taking place in the rapid grocery delivery industry is being done for one reason - to strengthen companies against the growing value and popularity of Getir.

Also, the valuations being assigned to Gorillas and Flink, defy the laws of finance, mathematics, and logic. In my opinion, there is an ‘invisible hand of collusion’ artificially inflating their valuations.

Although there are many rapid grocery delivery companies, only a few will survive. Several have already been acquired and there will be more acquisitions in the future.

I believe that rapid grocery delivery is a viable business model, but only a few companies will succeed. I anticipate that there will be many changes. I must also point out that not all of the companies will enter the US market.

Rapid grocery delivery isn’t only about groceries. It’s about the future of delivering all retail products quickly.

Listed below are the companies I anticipate will remain standing or emerge as eventual leaders in the space.

1. Buyk

Buyk is arguably the best run company with the most experienced founders, Slava Bocharov and Rodion Shishkov, who gained incredible experience when they launched Samokat, in Russia.

I rank Buyk as the number one rapid grocery delivery company overall.

RTIH gets the lowdown on @buyk_15min, a new service promising #grocery delivery from dark store to doorstep within 15 mins. The venture has soft launched in Manhattan, with ambitions to expand across the US and beyond #retailtech #startups #fooddelivery https://t.co/4T8XpVLf9s
— Retail Technology Innovation Hub (@RTIH_RetailTech) September 9, 2021

2. Getir

Getir is an exceptional company and I’ve always liked them. Getir should assess acquiring JOKR but ignore Flink and Gorillas.

A combined Getir/Delivery Hero would be a powerhouse. Getir partnering with Ahold Delhaize is worth exploring.

3. DoorDash

DoorDash has exceptional potential to become not only a leader in rapid grocery delivery, but also a leader in online grocery delivery, and even has the potential to acquire a major grocery retailer.

4. Instacart

Instacart should already be the leader globally in rapid grocery delivery but more has to be done.

I continue to recommend that Instacart acquire Gopuff; something that should have already happened but GoPuff’s valuation may prevent an acquisition by Instacart. If that turns out to be correct, Instacart should acquire Delivery Hero, Getir, JOKR, or Buyk.

5. Delivery Hero

Delivery Hero will more than likely eventually acquire Gorillas. Combining both companies would be a wise move. Acquiring JOKR to further strengthen Delivery Hero and Gorillas would also be a wise move.

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