RetailNext: the era of the impulse holiday spree is ending as Black Friday in-store traffic drops across USA
Black Friday in-store traffic was down -3.6% across the USA, according to RetailNext, a specialist in retail intelligence and traffic analytics that works with the likes of Burberry, Bloomingdale’s, Disney Store, Macy’s, and Estée Lauder.
Its research is based on data collected at tens of thousands of US stores across hundreds of brands operating on the RetailNext smart store platform and in a variety of retail segments, from big box brands to standalone and specialty retail operations.
Metrics exclude automobiles, petroleum, and warehouse clubs, and include locations across the US that were open both this year and last year.
Black Friday Traffic Overall - 2025 vs 2024
Black Friday: -3.6%
Black Friday Traffic by Category - 2025 vs 2024
Apparel: -0.6%
Footwear: -6.1%
Health & Beauty: -2.1%
Home: -6.5%
Jewellery: -2.0%
Black Friday Traffic by Region - 2025 vs 2024
Midwest: -3.8%
Northeast: -3.9%
South: -4.0%
West: -2.8%
“Black Friday remains the biggest driver of traffic to stores over the course of the year and the holiday shopping period, but traffic was down 3.6% this year, and the story isn’t just that shoppers stayed home; it’s that they’re changing how and when they shop," says RetailNext’s Joe Shasteen.
"We’re seeing a consumer who is still spending, but doing it with surgical precision. They’re waiting for the right price, stretching purchases across a longer promo window, and walking into stores with a far narrower mission than we’ve seen in past holiday seasons."
He adds: "This 3.6% drop, however, is notably better than the sharper 6.2% drop we saw Sunday through Wednesday leading into the holiday (11/23-11/26). That gap matters. It shows that while shoppers remain cautious, they’re still willing to show up for the biggest promotional moments, even if they’re pulling back overall compared to last year."
Across categories, the pullback is uneven but telling. Apparel was nearly flat at -0.6%, suggesting people are still refreshing essentials, while more discretionary sectors like home (-6.5%) and jewellery (-2.0%) took the sharper hit. Since health and beauty saw a +13% surge in 2023, it has been followed by a -7% drop in 2024 and a further -2.1% decline in 2025. Even footwear (-6.1%) saw a measurable dip from +1.3% in 2024. This is a consumer making trade offs in real-time.”
“Regionally, the declines were remarkably consistent [Midwest (-3.8%), Northeast (-3.9%), South (-4.0%), and West (-2.8%)], signaling that this isn’t a weather story or a local economy story. It’s national. What we’re watching play out is the ‘value era’ of US retail. Shoppers are deal hungry, inflation trained, and unwilling to buy outside their priorities.”
"The headline isn’t the drop in traffic, it’s what it confirms. The era of the impulse holiday spree is ending. Consumers are in control, and they’re treating Black Friday as one data point in a much longer hunt for value.”
2025 RTIH INNOVATION AWARDS
Physical stores were a key focus area at the 2025 RTIH Innovation Awards.
We received a record number of entries and many fantastic examples of the continued resilience and dynamism of the retail space during hugely challenging times.
For a full rundown of all of the shortlisted entries, click here.
Our 2025 hall of fame entrants were revealed during a sold out event which took place at The HAC in Central London on 16th October and consisted of a drinks reception, three course meal, and awards ceremony presided over by award winning comedian, actress and writer Tiff Stevenson.
In his welcome speech, Scott Thompson, Founder and Editor, RTIH, said: “This is the awards’ fifth year as a physical event. We started off with just 30 people at the South Place Hotel not far from here, then moved to London Bridge Hotel, then The Barbican, and last year RIBA’s HQ in the West End.”
“But I’m conscious of the fact that, to quote the legend that is Taylor Swift, You’re only as hot as your last hit, baby. So, this year we’ve moved to our biggest venue yet, and also pulled in our largest number of entries to date and broken attendance records.”
He added: “This year’s submissions have without doubt been our best yet. To quote one of the judges: The examples of innovative developments across both traditional and digital retail spaces were truly remarkable.”
Congratulations to our winners, and a big thank you to our sponsors, judging panel, the legend that is Tiff Stevenson, and all those who attended our 2025 gathering.
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